Next Bubble, Still Investing

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I think we are at least partly in an AI bubble: the big tech companies are spending around 700 billion dollars this year on data centres and chips, earn comparatively little in return, and their numbers look better than they are thanks to stretched depreciation schedules and, in some cases, debt kept off the balance sheet. The most extreme example of an inflated valuation is SpaceX, which is worth around 2.1 trillion dollars on the stock market today, more than a hundred times its 2025 revenue, even though it loses money and therefore doesn't even have a P/E ratio. Only Starlink makes money there: the rocket division loses money, mainly because it pays for developing the new Starship mega-rocket, and the acquired AI company xAI, Twitter included, is burning billions. The catch: an all-world ETF already holds Nvidia, Microsoft and, since the end of June, a little SpaceX too, so I can't escape the bubble that way. Still, I think a monthly savings plan into one is the best investment, because anyone who started paying into the global stock index every month in October 2007, just before the crash, was already in the black by the end of 2009 despite a fall of about half, while a lump sum invested in the same month was not in the black until 2013.

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